Afrah Nasser is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC. She is a recipient of the Committee to Protect Journalists’ International Press Freedom Award and formerly worked as a Yemen researcher at Human Rights Watch.
In a televised speech days after the U.S. presidential election, the leader of Yemen's Houthi militia, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, declared that the group's attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and against Israel would persist until a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon is secured. "Neither Trump, nor Biden, nor any criminal in this world will be able to sway us from our firm and principled position," he said.
While the rhetoric was not surprising, it was a reminder of the realities in Yemen that awaited either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the White House. With U.S. foreign policy once again at a turning point with Trump's return to power, the prospect for a better U.S. approach to Yemen may be lost. What Yemen really needs is a strategy beyond rival power plays—a call for genuine partnership in the pursuit of peace and stability.
For too long, going back to Barack Obama's presidency and extending through Trump's first term and Joe Biden's administration, the U.S. has seen Yemen almost exclusively through the lens of Saudi Arabia's security interests. This narrow perspective allowed Saudi Arabia to effectively shape Yemen's political trajectory following the Arab Spring in 2011, through the Gulf Cooperation Council's initiative for a flawed political transition after the fall of longtime President Ali Abdullah Saleh. With its Saudi-centric view of Yemen, Washington later empowered the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen in 2015.
When Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping erupted last year in response to Israel's punishing war in Gaza, the U.S. took a reactive stance, narrowly targeting Houthi military interests rather than addressing the broader, underlying issues: the need for a cease-fire in Gaza to reduce tensions across the region and a resolution to Yemen's deepening political fragmentation. Washington should not keep sidelining Yemen's unique political and economic realities, but there is little hope that the new Trump administration will change anything.
With U.S. foreign policy once again at a turning point with Trump's return to power, the prospect for a better U.S. approach to Yemen may be lost.
- Afrah Nasser
After years of inconsistent and, at times, contradictory policies—including an ambivalent approach to Yemen's long-stalled peace process and involvement in escalatory military operations under initiatives like Operation Prosperity Guardian, the U.S.-led naval coalition in the Red Sea—the U.S. has deeply compromised its standing in Yemen. Amid U.S. support for Israel's war in Gaza, where American-made weapons contribute to a plausible genocide, Yemenis see little reason to trust U.S. intentions. This perception of U.S. complicity in violence only fuels anti-American sentiment, playing directly into the hands of groups like the Houthis and al-Qaida in Yemen, which leverage this distrust to recruit and spread their own narratives of U.S. aggression. The U.S. would have struggled to regain credibility in Yemen under a Harris administration, and the chances will be even less under Trump.
U.S. policy in Yemen must exist beyond mere military might. Presidents going back to Obama have struggled to balance U.S. interests in Yemen with the need to recognize Yemen's sovereignty and prioritize long-term stability. Washington has been too focused on short-term security goals—again, often shaped by Saudi Arabia's own interests—over a longer view that addresses the root causes of instability and attempts to build a more sustainable partnership with Yemeni parties.
Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea pose significant risks to U.S. interests, regional stability and the U.S. Navy itself. These attacks threaten maritime security by jeopardizing freedom of navigation through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial chokepoint for international trade and energy supply routes, and with it U.S. interests in safe shipping lanes. The attacks have led to increased shipping costs and longer transit times, disrupting not only U.S. businesses but global supply chains, with broader economic repercussions around the world. With near-daily Houthi attacks, the U.S. Navy's mission in the Red Sea "has turned into the most intense running sea battle the Navy has faced since World War II," as Naval leaders and experts told the Associated Press. The threat to U.S. forces is particularly intense given the Houthis' growing arsenal of missiles and drones, as evidenced by large-scale engagements like the Houthi attack on the USS Laboon last January. Houthi forces claim that all U.S. bases and naval fleets in the region are now within range of their missiles.
The costs of U.S. military efforts to deter these attacks are adding up. Since October 7, 2023, the U.S. has spent $4.86 billion on military operations in Yemen and the wider region in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. And still, Houthi attacks continue; they have not been "deterred," as the U.S. set out to do. Meanwhile, the Houthis' ability to facilitate safe passage for Red Sea shipping aligned with China and Russia, while targeting vessels from U.S.-aligned countries, could shift regional economic alliances by undermining a key pillar of U.S. policy in the Middle East: freedom of navigation through the region's waterways.
The Houthis' attacks against Israel over the war in Gaza have amplified their influence in Yemen and beyond, aligning them with regional anti-U.S. and anti-Israel sentiments. By directly attacking U.S. and British vessels in response to Israel's war, the Houthis have boosted their role within the so-called "resistance" bloc of regional militias backed in varying degrees by Iran, with the Houthis possibly supplanting even Hezbollah. In short, the Houthis have positioned themselves as a central player against U.S.-aligned regional interests.
Under Trump, there is little chance the U.S. will seek to restore its credibility in Yemen and prioritize Yemen's own sovereignty over the interests of regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- Afrah Nasser
To address both the Houthi threats and the security of the Red Sea, the U.S. must build credibility in Yemen that isn't simply about rolling back military interventions or distancing itself from conflicts; it's also about understanding and supporting Yemen's internal sociopolitical landscape. A new approach would include investing in localized peacebuilding efforts, supporting Yemeni-led initiatives, and addressing economic issues that fuel support for groups like the Houthis and al-Qaida. The U.S. could regain some trust by respecting Yemen's autonomy and facilitating solutions that recognize Yemen's rich, complex historical context and its capacity for self-determination. To navigate all these issues, Washington would need to engage in Yemen with humility, acknowledging the harm of past policies. Repairing this fractured relationship requires a sincere commitment to fostering peace, not furthering conflict, if the U.S. hopes to regain any semblance of respect or influence in Yemen and the broader region.
If the U.S. wants to show a sincere commitment to fostering peace, it has to apply its policies uniformly across the region. That's why the first step would be to support a long overdue cease-fire in Gaza. The next administration should recognize the limits of American power; whether Trump will is another matter. But it is clear that in Yemen, U.S. airstrikes and naval deployments in the Red Sea to "deter" Houthi attacks have proven ineffective.
It is unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will reckon with these longstanding problems in U.S. policy, given its other priorities, as well as the likelihood that Trump will be even more beholden to Saudi Arabia than any other American president. Yemen, and Yemenis, will suffer. Instead of a more balanced U.S. approach to Yemen that could involve supporting Yemeni-led peacebuilding efforts and addressing economic hardships that fuel Houthi support, we may see even deeper U.S. military entanglement, given Trump's track record during his first term, including vetoing a bipartisan resolution to end U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen.
Under Trump 2.0, there is little chance that the U.S. will seek to restore its credibility in Yemen and prioritize Yemen's own sovereignty over the interests of regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which have appeared to strongly favor Trump over Biden or Harris. To redefine its role in Yemen, the U.S. must redefine its Yemen policy, one that aims for a sustainable path of stability, instead of more military intervention that only feeds further unrest and misery for Yemenis. But any chance of changing U.S. policy will now probably have to wait another four years.
