Robin Yassin-Kassab is the author of the novel The Road From Damascus and co-author with Leila al-Shami of Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War.
You know the multiverse theory, that there are many parallel universes, and that they may contain alternate versions of ourselves and our conditions in this universe. Well, the last couple of days feel like we've jumped from one existence into a parallel universe, one in which a lot more is possible. This universe is a flexible, more cheerful place, in which the Syrian revolution may even be resolved.
The rebels advanced out of the narrow strip of Idlib in which they and millions of Syrians from around the country had been crammed for over four years. "The rebels" here means a military alliance under the umbrella of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the greatly moderated and better organized reincarnation of Jabhat al-Nusra, which once declared allegiance to al-Qaida but later broke those ties in 2016. It's still an authoritarian Islamist militia, but it's not at all "like ISIS" as the uninformed are saying. It broke definitively from the ISIS stream in 2014. HTS allows far greater space for sectarian and ethnic minorities than ISIS did, and comparably more room for pluralism, disagreement and consultation (though it still arrests and detains some political opponents, and tortures them). Unlike ISIS, it doesn't field a Hisba Diwan, or morality police, to interfere in people's daily lives. Its focus is Syrian rather than transnational. It doesn't threaten the West.
Its military alliance with other militias, under the umbrella Fatah al-Mubeen, also incorporates many members of other less authoritarian groups that were displaced to Idlib and then gobbled up by HTS. HTS has not been popular among people in Idlib—they've been demonstrating against it for months—but its offensive is wildly popular, because the people want to be rid of Bashar al-Assad and his foreign backers, and to return to their homes.
What this offensive shows is Syrians organizing themselves, and Assad's gangster regime crumbling as soon as Russian and Iranian occupiers are unable to protect it.
- Robin Yassin-Kassab
I didn't expect the offensive, at least not on this scale. Nobody did. At first it looked to me like a controlled operation to restore the agreed Astana lines—that is, the division of northwest Syria agreed upon in talks hosted by Kazakhstan in Astana by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Russia had pushed Turkey to normalize and negotiate with Assad, and Turkey had tried hard to do so. Assad had refused to budge from his maximalist positions, the Russians don't want to alienate Turkey (given their difficult position attacking Ukraine), and Turkey needs more Syrian territory to which to send Syrian refugees. So perhaps the Turks and Russians were scaring Assad into negotiating by taking a few towns in the Aleppo countryside.
But the offensive went much further than that, far beyond the Astana lines. News came, meanwhile, that the Turks had prevented the Syrian National Army—comprised of former Free Syrian Army militias now under Turkish control—from moving toward eastern Aleppo. This allowed the PKK-dominated Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) to take areas in Aleppo abandoned by collapsing Assad forces—surely the opposite of what Turkey wanted. Turkey was not, therefore, in control of events. Turkey clearly didn't know what was going on.
What this offensive shows, therefore, is Syrians organizing themselves, and Assad's gangster regime crumbling as soon as Russian and Iranian occupiers are unable to protect it. When Assad subjugated free Aleppo in 2016, 80 percent of his ground troops were Iranian-organized transnational Shia militia, and the air force was Russian. Now the Iranian militia system is weak as a result of its targeting by Israel. In particular, Hezbollah was decapitated in Lebanon. (After 2011, Hezbollah turned itself from a resistance organization into a counter-revolutionary tool, and was infiltrated and now destroyed by Israel as a result—but that's another story.) The Russians are preoccupied with their invasion of Ukraine. In these circumstances, the unsustainable nature of regime rule comes inevitably to the fore. Anybody who knew Syria knew that the regime was widely hated, that it had utterly destroyed the Syrian economy, and that it was held in place only by foreign powers. But nobody expected such a dramatic and sudden turnaround.
The rebels swept into Aleppo city. The regime and the Iranian militias, which had previously spent years battling for the city, fled without resistance. Military analysts say the rebels appear better organized and more disciplined than ever before. Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the HTS leader, issued directives to his men to respect the civilians of the city, including the large population of Christians and other minorities. So far, I have heard one unconfirmed report of a woman being ordered by a rebel fighter to cover her hair, but nothing worse. Apparently people in the city are nervous of how the rebels may behave, and of course of punitive Russian and Assadist bombing, which has already begun. (It is important to hold the rebel fighters to account, and to high standards. In the past they have helped the revolution's enemies with their violations of Syrian people's rights.)
Key towns in Idlib province were quickly liberated, places that were once full of creative revolutionary activity, like Saraqeb, Khan Sheikhoun, Ma'arat al-Numan, and Kafranbel. Next, the offensive moved into the Hama countryside, taking towns like Morek. Years' worth of progress is happening in mere hours. As I write, the rebels are at the gates of Hama city.
Anybody who knew Syria knew that the regime was widely hated, that it had utterly destroyed the Syrian economy, and that it was held in place only by foreign powers.
- Robin Yassin-Kassab
This is by far the best news in many years. Assad, Iran and Russia are being smashed. Prisoners are being released (moving footage can be seen of prisoners, including many women, rushing out of the dungeons in Aleppo in which they were tortured and starved). Hundreds of thousands of people are returning to their homes.
Apparently, Rastan and Talbiseh, towns in Homs province, have been liberated by armed residents. In Deraa in the south, several towns have risen against Assad. (Next door, the Druze-dominated Sweida province is already largely autonomous, having roundly rejected Assad well over a year ago.) The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army has moved into territory held jointly by the PKK/SDF and the Assad regime in Tel Rifaat, a strategic area north of Aleppo near the Turkish border.
The fact that other parts of Syria are rising, and under different commands, is important because it means HTS influence will be diluted. If several parts of the country are liberated, HTS will have to build a united front with people with other perspectives and political backgrounds.
This doesn't mean that the democratic revolution is about to seize power, or that Syria is about to enter paradise. The civil revolution that began in 2011 was largely crushed, its experiments in democracy eliminated, its most grassroots military forces co-opted or devoured by more powerful and authoritarian actors. There are no longer hundreds of independent, quasi-democratic local councils to organize civil life. The country is divided, traumatized, cursed by warlords and foreign occupiers. But suddenly it looks as if it may be possible not only to challenge but to end the rule of the monster, which means it may become possible for millions to go home, and therefore for civil society to begin to reconstitute itself. The future can't start until Assad is gone.
Today, the most important events may occur around the city of Hama, where the regime may be able to mobilize fighters based in loyal communities to stage a counterattack. If the dominoes continue to fall, I'd expect very fierce fighting in Homs and Damascus, where militarized Alawite communities have been planted in strategic locations precisely for this eventuality.
I also expect all fascist forces regionally and globally to do what they can to stop Syrian self-determination, including the genocidal Israeli state, which Assad father and son have served so well, keeping the border quiet for decades despite the regime's rhetoric about "resistance" and Israeli occupation. Israel certainly wishes to crush Hezbollah and the Iranian militia system, but it doesn't want to unseat the Assad dictatorship that handed over the Golan and that imprisons teenage girls, like Tal al-Mallouhi, if they write poems about Palestine.
Already, Israel's cheerleaders are making noises about the "danger of chemical weapons falling into the hands of jihadists." These are the same people who didn't worry about chemical weapons in the hands of Assad, who slaughtered thousands of innocents with them, or in the hands of the Iranian militias that are supposedly such a threat to Israel.
Meanwhile, other people still choose to believe that the fascist Assad regime is "anti-Zionist"—the same regime that besieged the Palestinian camp of Yarmouk, outside Damascus, killing and starving thousands of Palestinians, and recently withdrew even further from its side of the Golan so that Israel could advance. Freedom for Syrians from fascism and foreign occupation is a noble aim in itself. So is freedom for Arabs in general from the dictatorships that abuse them. This is actually a precondition for Palestinian liberation.
But today, it doesn't matter so much what outsiders think. History in Syria is being made on the ground.
Editor's note: An earlier version of this article was originally published in Qunfuz.
