Yara Bataineh is an editorial associate at DAWN’s Democracy in Exile. She holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Jordan and a master’s degree in international relations from the University of San Diego. Her work has included refugee-focused initiatives and civic education programs in Jordan.
As Jordan marks its 80th anniversary, I find my joy overshadowed by worry about its future. Born from the wreckage of British colonial rule and situated in a chaotic region, Jordan preserved a fragile stability amid wars, uprisings and regional conflicts. Jordan, like the rest of the Arab world, was not shaped naturally but carved by imperial interests that fractured the region, constrained its sovereignty and bound many states to systems of dependence long after formal colonialism ended.
As a Jordanian, it is impossible to ignore that Jordan's stability has always been conditional, as it faces an existential threat today due to the demise of the two-state solution and the Israeli annexation of the West Bank.
Palestine has sat at the core of Jordan's history since independence, particularly because it shares the longest border with it and with Israel's occupation, and hosts the largest Palestinian diaspora, who constitute the majority of its population after waves of displacement beginning in the 1947-49 Nakba. Most displaced Palestinians have since obtained citizenship, becoming deeply integrated in Jordan, making its future inseparable from that of Palestine. Every Israeli escalation, annexation plan or assault on Palestinian life reverberates directly inside Jordan.
If Jordan takes any serious steps against Western interests, it risks jeopardizing foreign aid.
- Yara Bataineh
Israel's genocide in Gaza prompted near-constant protests in Jordan throughout 2024 demanding the suspension of the 1994 Wadi Araba peace treaty that established relations with Israel. These demonstrations were met with harsh crackdowns and detentions, eventually leading to their demise. Although other pro-Palestine protests have emerged since 2025, participants and organizers have heavily self-censored and no longer mention the treaty.
The crackdown is connected to Jordan's inability to act on public demands. The Kingdom's reluctance to end the treaty or meaningfully intervene to halt Israel's genocide is due to blackmail from foreign donors, particularly the United States, its largest donor since the late 1950s. Thus, authorities choose a more convenient path: containing dissent.
Jordan is often described as a rentier state, though not one based on oil or gas wealth. Instead, it relies on sustained external financial assistance, receiving about $4 billion annually. This dependence sustains a structure where Jordan finds itself balancing domestic public opinion against the political expectations of donors. Aid, therefore, functions as political leverage, shaping Amman's regional posture and diplomatic calculations.
Jordan's economic fragility further deepens these pressures. The Kingdom is among the most water-poor countries in the world, with limited natural resources constraining its development. Economic stagnation and rising living costs have intensified public frustration, particularly among young people, as their unemployment rate reached 50% in recent years. These structural vulnerabilities leave Jordan further exposed to external pressure and dependent on foreign assistance for stability, even if it is shortsighted.
If Jordan takes any serious steps against Western interests, it risks jeopardizing foreign aid. This conundrum was evident in early 2025 when U.S. President Donald Trump suggested Washington could withhold aid from Amman if it refused to take in the Palestinians from Gaza, whom Israel aims to ethnically cleanse. Such a move would have severely destabilized the Kingdom.
This dependence extends into water and energy, two of Jordan's core strategic limitations. Israel provides Jordan with water allocations under the peace treaty, but those supplies are not free from political pressure. In 2021, an add-on agreement increased these water deliveries. Yet once it expired, Israel let the extra supply lapse, tying any renewal to broader political considerations, particularly Jordan's diplomatic position toward Israel, underscoring how its water scarcity is utilized to pressure the Kingdom.
Similarly, a 2016 gas deal made Israel a major supplier of electricity to Jordan despite widespread public opposition. Leaked details of the deal suggested the agreement largely favored Israel, shielding it from liability if wars or legal changes disrupted supplies while exposing Jordan to penalties for noncompliance. The risks became clear during disruptions resulting from the June 2025 12-day war and again in 2026, the latter episode involved Israel suspending gas exports to Jordan for 33 days, forcing it to turn to costly alternatives.
Jordan's dependence on foreign aid and resources has stripped the Kingdom of the leverage needed to deter this outcome, even as it threatens Jordanian and Palestinian futures.
- Yara Bataineh
Linking essential resources to political considerations gives Israel substantial leverage over a country already threatened by its expansionist goals. As it expands in both Syria and Lebanon, Israel has steadily deepened control over the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, through annexation policies. In 2020, Israel announced plans to annex large parts of the Jordan Valley and expand illegal settlements under the first Trump administration's "Deal of the Century." Although formal annexation was later suspended, Israel's illegal settlements expand at a rapid pace and scale, entrenching de facto annexation over Palestinian land. In February 2026, Israel further expanded administrative control by approving measures to register West Bank land as "state property."
For Amman, these developments are an existential threat. Since the 1970s, Israeli officials have periodically promoted the idea of Jordan as an alternative Palestinian homeland because of its Palestinian majority, a plan referred to as the "Jordan option." Since October 2023, such references have become increasingly visible in Israeli political and media discourse, deepening fears in Jordan that Israel could ethnically cleanse Palestinians by permanently pushing them across the Jordan River to achieve this reality.
Israel has repeatedly voiced its desire to expel Palestinians, citing demographic concerns. As annexation accelerates, the "Jordan option" is no longer theoretical. Yet Jordan's dependence on foreign aid and resources has stripped the Kingdom of the leverage needed to deter this outcome, even as it threatens Jordanian and Palestinian futures. If Israel emerges victorious from its current war with Iran and its regional allies, could Jordan be next?
The conventional wisdom among ruling elites in Jordan is that the status quo is preferable to unpredictable outcomes. However, how long can Amman sustain that status quo, as the threats confronting it are increasingly existential?
This context meets Jordan at 80. Its already struggling economy has been severely impacted by the war on Iran. Israel's expansionism threatens the Kingdom's survival. Although the U.S. is Jordan's largest donor, public resentment of it is increasing over its unwavering support for Israel. Palestinians are deeply woven into Jordan's family networks and social fabric, making Israel's genocide feel inseparable from Jordan itself.
As a Jordanian, an Arab and an anti-imperialist, I ache when I witness my country shackled by U.S. aid dependence and its resource scarcity exploited. My anxiety grows as Israeli impunity and expansionism deepen. I worry for my people in Jordan and Palestine. I cannot separate my fear for Jordan from the broader reality of a region still trapped within systems of imperial power, foreign domination and the ongoing colonization of Palestine. Thousands have already been displaced from the West Bank, a number that only grows as Israeli officials and media pundits discuss and act upon annexation and ethnic cleansing, aspiring to find a solution to their demographic anxiety through Jordan.
This anxiety is not mine alone. It is shared across a nation unable to respond to the ground shifting beneath it. What once seemed stable now appears fragile, even an illusion. Jordan's dependence cannot shield it from existential threats, and its position should serve as a warning to the Arab world. A state bound by aid and resource scarcity cannot act freely, even when confronting existential threats.
The status quo in Jordan is no longer holding; it is eroding. If the country is to endure beyond this moment, it must begin to confront the very structure of dependence that has long defined it before that structure collapses under the weight of pressures it can no longer withstand. Eighty years after independence, Jordan's greatest challenge is no longer survival in a turbulent region, but survival without the ability to act independently within it.
The views and positions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of DAWN.
