Zine Labidine Ghebouli is a visiting fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations. His work focuses on Euro-Mediterranean cooperation and North African affairs.
Donald Trump's return to the White House has already proven to be a radical shift for a turbulent world, as many predicted following his surprise reelection. Not even 100 days into his second term, Trump has immediately upended everything from global trade to America's own economic stability. His second term in office could usher in a new global order that would have lasting impacts around the world. While the Trump administration has been focused on the wars in Ukraine and across the Middle East, alongside Trump's talk of "taking over" territory from Greenland to Panama, North Africa has been out of his sights—for now. But it likely will not stay that way for long.
During Trump's first term, his Middle East policy, if it can really be called that, amounted to the Abraham Accords, signed in his last months in office to normalize diplomatic relations initially between Israel and two Gulf states: the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. They were quickly extended to Morocco and Sudan, which traded diplomatic recognition of Israel for various inducements from Trump. These normalization agreements, which were celebrated by the Trump administration as "peace deals" (even though many of these countries were not formally at war with Israel or hadn't been for years), represented a major shift in U.S. foreign policy in the region.
Under American mediation, Israel and several Arab states normalized their relations—a key goal of administrations in Washington long before Trump. But with the Abraham Accords, the U.S. dropped any pretense of brokering peace between Israelis and Palestinians. The Abraham Accords appear instead to be a vehicle to consolidate American influence in the region and design a new reality where a comprehensive and sustainable peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians was no longer the only parameter for normalization between Israel and the Arab world. In the context of North Africa, the Trump administration also broke with decades of official U.S. policy by recognizing Morocco's sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara, which Trump offered in exchange for Morocco's recognition of Israel.
The Trump administration has made clear it plans to extend the Abraham Accords and their entire logic around the region, with trade, investment and arms deals between Israel and Arab countries. Trump confirmed in recent statements that normalization will continue as a pillar of U.S. policy. Saudi Arabia may be the primary target of these normalization offers, as it was for former President Joe Biden, who tried and failed to broker a deal between Israel and Riyadh, to build on the Abraham Accords. The Trump administration may pivot to previous U.S. attempts at normalization with North African countries like Libya and Tunisia and exert pressure on local authorities to join an ever-expanding Abraham Accords.
Trump's second term is likely to put an end to the status quo in North Africa and fast track a reevaluation of the regional security order.
- Zine Labidine Ghebouli
In that context, governments in North Africa, like President Kais Saied's authoritarian and populist regime in Tunisia, may use Trump's possible overtures about Israeli normalization to avoid any questions from Washington about basic freedoms and economic reforms. The calls from some Congress members to scrutinize Saied's government and others in North Africa have been marginal, in any case. Trump's transactional, business-first approach to foreign policy may appeal to regional leaders like Saied and Libya's divided rulers, who may consider normalization with Israel under American mediation as a tool to gain support and legitimacy amid mounting demands for accountability from their own people. Morocco, which has already normalized with Israel, could instead capitalize on its privileged and expanding status of cooperation with the Israeli government to consolidate its diplomatic standing over its own regional priorities—most of all, Western Sahara. Trump may confirm Washington's 2020 policy shift by opening a consulate in Dakhla and limiting the role of the U.N. Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), solidifying Morocco's sovereignty claims in the disputed territory. But the cost of this additional U.S. support for Morocco's territorial expansion remains unclear.
Trump's track record during his first term suggests his administration will continue to focus on "deals," with trade and economic interests superseding any single foreign policy issue in the Middle East or North Africa. According to official statistics, U.S. trade with countries in the Maghreb stood at approximately $15 billion in 2022, with limited foreign direct investments. Trump is likely to want to expand that by offering new investment opportunities. His administration will benefit from growing sectors including energy, entrepreneurship and manufacturing that could see more direct investment from American companies. This investment outreach could build on previous talks on digital development and innovation and gas deals, but they will have to adapt to a challenging business environment in the region.
Although pursuing U.S. business and economic interests across North Africa may prove useful for bilateral relations, it could divert attention from political reforms. Throughout his first term, Trump proved uninterested in any foreign policy based on values like democracy and human rights, preferring his transactional approach that gives little, if any, consideration for that. His return to the White House, following a series of U.S. policy failures in the Middle East under the Biden administration, will further encourage such transactional dynamics at the expense of local civil society organizations and American soft power.
While North Africa may not necessarily be a top priority for the Trump administration yet, the region will not be immune from Trump's attempts to remake the world according to his wishes.
- Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Trump's decision to effectively eliminate all foreign aid has already destabilized the development and aid sectors in North Africa and exacerbated grievances of local communities across the region who depend on foreign assistance. His administration's move to shutter longstanding peace-building initiatives and institutions in Washington, like the U.S. Institute of Peace, will only worsen these impacts. Trump has aligned himself with resurgent authoritarians in the region whose regimes demonize all forms of international support and especially American assistance.
Nonetheless, Washington will continue to defend its posturing and influence on other fronts, including geopolitical competition. Trump's sweeping tariffs and his readiness to weaponize trade relations to serve his nationalist agenda, even against America's closest allies like Canada and the European Union, will likely extend to North Africa, for example with businesses or industries in Morocco and Algeria that may face strategic dilemmas regarding their U.S. trade relations. Even as oil imports are exempted from U.S. tariffs, Trump's trade policy could impose a heavy cost on business owners and exporters of other products, especially food. In that sense, countries like Tunisia may face increasing pressure as it is grappling with a severe economic crisis. Secretary of State Marco Rubio could also revive his previous calls as a senator for sanctions against Algeria for its military ties with Russia, even as the Algerian government seeks a closer and potentially unprecedented defense cooperation agreement with Washington at a time of regional upheaval.
While Trump's "America First" agenda plays to his populist base at home, it risks weakening the U.S. abroad. Trump's first administration already hampered the promise of globalization, and his second could decisively change the global order, with significant costs and strategic shifts across North Africa. Trump's aggressive tariff policy and attempt to strong-arm countries around the world, including even Washington's traditional allies, may push Algeria and other North African countries to strengthen their defense of multipolarity, to protect themselves from Trump's whims. (Morocco, for its part, is happy with Trump's return). Trump's abandonment of American soft power, most of all foreign aid, could allow other countries—Russia, China, Gulf states and Turkey—to all gain more influence across the Maghreb and rival U.S. and Western interests in the region.
Ultimately, Trump's second term is likely to put an end to the status quo in North Africa and fast track a reevaluation of the regional security order. Trump, as he proved in his first term, can be unpredictable, but as a region, North Africa also knows in part what to expect: Trump's erratic transactionalism and his demands for countries to prove "loyal" to the United States, and to him. While the region may not necessarily be a top priority for the Trump administration yet, it will not be immune from Trump's attempts to remake the world according to his wishes.
