Kelly Petillo is the programme manager for Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
After almost two years of genocide, famine, ethnic cleansing and unspeakable war crimes, European Union Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen proposed a partial suspension of EU-Israel ties and sanctions on Israeli ministers during her state of the union address on Sept. 9. As a result, the EU Commission may act within its mandate to put on hold any EU bilateral support to Israel for the 2025-27 period, except for civil society, Yad Vashem (the World Holocaust Remembrance Center) and any projects falling under the EU-Israel cooperation facility. As such, leading EU countries like Italy must seize the moment to advance deeper moves that materially hold Israel accountable for its crimes in Gaza and across the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT).
Von Der Leyen's statement follows a review of Israel's compliance with Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which found that Israel is breaching the deal's human rights clause. That clause mandates that the EU suspend the agreement unilaterally upon such violations.
Von der Leyen's decision is mostly symbolic and sits within a wider—and rather slow—shift in the EU position. Today, even right-wing governments like Sweden have shifted course, recently calling for further measures like suspending the preferential trade component of the Association Agreement. As such, pressure is increasing across Europe, impacting countries ruled by right-wing political parties inclined to block other EU-wide measures meant to deter Israeli crimes in the OPT.
Italy can do more. It should immediately stop blocking EU action to suspend the trade clause of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
- Kelly Petillo
In this moment, Italy comes into particular focus. A full suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement that would go beyond mere symbolism would require unanimity—an unlikely outcome due to opposition by a few pro-Israel member states, like Hungary. However, the preferential trade clause of the Association Agreement, which would have a huge economic impact and create a cost for Israel's war, could more easily be suspended.
Rather than unanimity, such a decision only requires a qualified majority vote, meaning that the number of votes would only have to cover 15 countries representing at least 65% of the EU population. Thus, approval from major EU countries like Germany and Italy is crucial. Despite growing pressure, due to historical and political constraints, Germany is unlikely to approve such measures any time soon.
That leaves Italy, which desires a balanced Gaza policy. The country is juggling its role in the Second World War and the Holocaust, its priority to protect Christian communities in the Holy Land and concerns over increasing antisemitism with the need to advance a two-state solution in line with EU and international policy. Italy is also Israel's third largest arms supplier—after the United States and Germany—continuing arms sales in contravention of domestic law, which stipulates that Italian weapons should not be sold to countries engaged in armed conflict or that are responsible for violations of international law and human rights.
As Israel's genocide in Gaza intensifies and the threat of West Bank annexation increases, realities on the ground make inaction increasingly unacceptable. Many Israeli experts now recognize the genocide and Jewish-Italian intellectuals have demanded that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni take action by urgently recognizing the state of Palestine. Hundreds of former European officials are calling for the EU to sanction Israel.
But Rome remains on the back foot. The Italian parliament failed to vote for a suspension of bilateral ties with Israel, despite public demands. Those demands were recently reinforced by nationwide protests in 75 municipalities, spanning the country's southernmost and northernmost cities—including Palermo and Trieste.
Last week, Meloni stated that Italy will recognize a Palestinian state on only two conditions: if all Israeli hostages are released—which Hamas has been ready to do for months—and if Hamas gives up any role in a future Palestinian government. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas has already accepted the latter condition.
Yet, this will be difficult to achieve. Hamas may give up any official role, but as Israeli army officials and many experts have said, Hamas must be completely wiped out. These demands effectively make Italian recognition virtually impossible under Meloni's conditions.
Rome remains on the back foot. The Italian parliament failed to vote for a suspension of bilateral ties with Israel, despite public demands. Those demands were recently reinforced by nationwide protests in 75 municipalities, spanning the country's southernmost and northernmost cities—including Palermo and Trieste.
- Kelly Petillo
The truth is that a Palestinian state already exists under international law. Recognition is a political gesture that the vast majority of U.N. member states—157 of the 193 members—have already made. Politically, there is a process to implement a two-state solution under the recently endorsed New York Declaration. Italy participated in these efforts, co-chairing one of the working groups on security, alongside Indonesia, leading to its adoption.
Still, the U.S. position could block any Italian move. Rome is keen for recognition to have an impact, but is aware that Israel will not adjust its position without pressure from Washington. For Italy, this means recognizing Palestine will not have a serious impact.
Italy is also carefully watching Germany's posturing. If Rome or Berlin change their position, it would be a massive break with these countries' histories. On the other hand, Arab Gulf states—whose relations with Italy have grown under Meloni—have voiced their desire to see a more constructive Italian role in steering EU action.
In this regard, on July 15, the EU Foreign Affairs Council met to decide whether to revisit its ties with Israel, considering its actions in Gaza. The EU presented ministers with several options, ranging from full suspension of the Association Agreement to a suspension of preferential trade and research pillars, an arms embargo, sanctions on Israeli ministers, halting visa-free travel for Israeli citizens to the EU and ceasing trade with Israeli settlements. Frustratingly, due to only a few member states, the EU failed to take action. Two weeks later, the EU also failed to approve more symbolic components like suspending Israel from research funding under the Horizon Europe program.
With Von Der Leyen's announcement, that discussion has been revamped. Italy should not blink. Amid EU and global shifts spanning the past few months, with France, the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada—among others—recognizing the state of Palestine, some question Italy's lack of action. Even Germany announced a partial arms embargo, leaving Italy alone in the moment.
Rome may be receiving the message. At the UN General Assembly, Meloni said that "Israel has crossed the line," labelling the ongoing mass atrocities as "unacceptable." She unofficially acknowledged that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, saying, "I work on the Palestinian genocide every day." In August, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto made some of the harshest comments against Israeli actions so far by a member of the Meloni government, condemning Israeli attacks on the humanitarian aid operation, Global Sumud Flotilla. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has said Italy and Germany are carefully assessing the EU Commission's proposals, expressing support for some measures, like sanctioning Israeli settlers.
But Italy can do more. It should immediately stop blocking EU action to suspend the trade clause of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. By continuing its block, Italy is shooting itself in the foot, harming its efforts to deepen ties with regional actors while risking its domestic security, as Rome itself has argued. Italy should also join other G7 countries in recognizing Palestine without conditions. This is an essential move if Italy is concerned about protecting not just a Palestinian state and its people, but Israelis, as it would further cement the internationally agreed-upon consensus on the two countries, boosting prospects for a ceasefire and subsequent political process.
