Sam Ali is the pseudonym for a researcher and reporter from Yemen, whose real name is not being used given the security situation in the country.
The Yemen-based Houthi Movement, known locally as Ansar Allah, recently restarted their Red Sea operations, striking and sinking two commercial ships in twin attacks that left at least four sailors dead, two wounded, and eleven others missing or held captive by the group. The assault marks a tenuous moment for Yemen's future amid a fiery Israel-Iran rivalry that continues to produce bloodshed across the region.
The strikes began on July 6, with both ships sinking within 24 hours, between July 8 and 9. The incidents mark the first Houthi strikes on international shipping after a seven-month pause. Since late 2023, the efforts have disrupted shipping via the Suez Canal—one of the world's most important maritime trade routes connecting Asia and Europe.
The Houthi efforts come amid a U.S.-brokered truce between Iran—the group's main backer—and Israel following their 12-day war in late June. In parallel, the Trump administration is still attempting to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to end the former's punishing assault on Gaza, the purported impetus of the Houthi campaign against the Red Sea shipping and Israel. Washington is considering additional diplomatic talks with Iran regarding the longstanding issue of Tehran's nuclear file.
"I am not surprised by the fact that the Houthis have renewed their attacks in the Red Sea…It was only a matter of time before they did," Thomas Juneau, an associate fellow at Chatham House and assistant professor at the University of Ottawa, told Democracy in Exile.
Just as the Red Sea naval conflict remains a serious regional threat, it is also a primary factor preventing peace in Yemen, holding the future of the conflict-devastated country hostage.
- Sam Ali
But just as the Red Sea naval conflict remains a serious regional threat, it is also a primary factor preventing peace in Yemen, holding the future of the conflict-devastated country hostage.
In September 2023, Yemen seemed to be nearing a major agreement. The U.N. special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, had proposed a political roadmap, hoping it would bring an end to the country's protracted conflict.
Grundberg's proposal—the result of years of Oman-mediated backchannel talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis—was intended to deliver humanitarian and economic measures, steps towards a permanent cease-fire and inclusive talks among Yemen's warring factions.
Hamas's brutal Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel and the devastating war in Gaza halted steps toward that proposal midstream. The Houthis began firing drones and missiles at Israel and against ships in the Red Sea just weeks later in stated solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza.
Since then, the Houthis have struck more than 100 commercial ships in the Red Sea and beyond, hijacked another vessel and sank four others. At least eight sailors were killed in those operations.
Fernando Carvajal, who served on the United Nations Security Council's Panel of Experts on Yemen, told Democracy in Exile that "it is highly unlikely the Houthis and Saudi Arabia were near a breakthrough agreement around September 2023, due to major differences within the PLC," referring to the Presidential Leadership Council—the fractious executive body of Yemen's Internationally Recognized Government.
Even now, "the Houthis are nowhere near [the] start of talks with Saudi Arabia or the PLC. They are definitely using the Gaza war as a pretext for delay," said Carvajal, adding that "the U.N. envoy finds himself marginalized by all parties. The strikes on the civilian vessels [recently] came days after the U.N. envoy left Aden."
The Houthi campaign in the Red Sea "traps Yemen in perpetual instability," Fatima al-Asrar, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, told Democracy in Exile, indicating that it "ensures there's no meaningful path to peace."
Since last year, the Houthis have grown stronger, capitalizing on expanding regional clout from their naval attacks. The lackluster efforts of Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iranian-backed militias across the region, constituting Tehran's so-called "Axis of Resistance," only broadened the group's support.
Now that the Houthis constitute "the biggest armed group in the region," according to al-Asrar, "any peace will come at their terms."
"It is really a dangerous gambit for Yemen and the international community to accept peace with the Houthis," Al-Asrar continued, arguing that "Yemen's political future is effectively held hostage by Iran's broader ambitions."
Since last year, the Houthis have grown stronger, capitalizing on expanding regional clout from their naval attacks. The lackluster efforts of Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iranian-backed militias across the region, constituting Tehran's so-called "Axis of Resistance," only broadened the group's support.
- Sam Ali
Juneau believes that "attacks in the Red Sea have allowed the Houthis to position themselves as a rising regional power, and as an increasingly indispensable partner in Iran's much weakened Axis of Resistance."
"It was therefore a given that they would attack again at some point."
As long as the group's rivals in Yemen's internationally recognized government remain weak and fragmented, according to Juneau, "there will be no actor or coalition of actors able to defeat them."
United States President Donald Trump appeared to challenge that dynamic after a year of strikes on the group in 2024, conducting a new and expanded air campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. Dubbed Operation Rough Rider, the campaign's stated goal was to "restore freedom of navigation" in the Red Sea by "reestablishing deterrence" that the Biden administration had "cratered" during a yearlong campaign throughout 2024.
Trump threatened to destroy the Houthis. But Carvajal believes that Trump "fell well short of causing major damage to the Houthi hierarchy, apparently leaving the Houthis with sufficient capabilities to strike vessels" in the Red Sea. Trump halted attacks as part of a deal brokered by Iran in the Omani capital, Muscat, on May 6—a week before Trump's first regional tour during his second presidential term.
However, one week after the fresh round of escalation by the Houthis in the Red Sea, "It is clear both Iran and the Houthis were testing the Trump administration," according to Carvajal. The Houthis had not attacked commercial vessels since early December 2024.
"The attacks…came just before Iran's Foreign Minister visited Saudi Arabia. The meetings in Jeddah took place as Trump and Netanyahu met [that] Tuesday. There is speculation that the four men spoke on the phone that day," Carvajal said.
Yemen experts initially warned that U.S. anti-Houthi operations were unlikely to deter the Red Sea attacks and beyond, or to influence Iran, as Trump claimed. The May 6 deal may have halted the American strikes in Yemen after 51 days, but it also left the Houthis emboldened, locked in a tit-for-tat fight with Israel.
On July 7, hours after the first Houthi attack in the Red Sea, Israel conducted airstrikes on Yemen's key Hodeidah port in retaliation. Israel's second round of retaliatory strikes came two weeks later on July 21, when Israeli drones struck the Hodeidah port earlier this week. That move followed numerous Houthi attacks on Israel in recent weeks and months.
"There is no doubt that Israel will respond to Houthi attacks with disproportionately stronger attacks," Juneau argued before the July 21 strikes. "That is how Israel intends, systematically, to impose a higher cost on its adversaries to try to deter them from attacking again, or at least to slow down their attacks."
Al-Asrar believes that the Israeli response is "most likely" to continue. "For Israel, Houthi threats in the Red Sea aren't isolated; they're another front in Iran's regional project," she said.
"As long as the Houthis keep projecting force, Israel will feel compelled to respond."
Yet, Israel may now have only one option, according to Carvajal. "If the Houthis strike one more vessel linked to Israel's economy or claim another missile launch on Israeli territory," he said, then "Netanyahu will have to save face and launch an operation against the Houthi top leadership."
While the U.S. response to the Houthis' recent twin attacks has not gone beyond a press statement's "strong condemnation," it remains an open question whether the Trump administration would renew the American operation.
"Trump definitely has egg on his face, as the two strikes by [the] Houthis showed the U.S. that [the] Houthis are not afraid of renewed U.S. strikes," Carvajal said.
"Trump is extremely unpredictable," as Juneau put it.
"I think, overall, he would prefer—based on his instincts—not to renew the campaign against the Houthis," he added. "But it is also clear by now that he will not hesitate to hit the Houthis again, especially if they hit American interests."
The deal between the Trump administration and the Houthis "won't create any sort of lasting or sustainable framework for peace in the Red Sea," Gregory D. Johnsen, who also served on the United Nations Security Council's Panel of Experts on Yemen, warned in May.
Meanwhile, Yemen's future will remain in limbo as the prospect of the U.N.-proposed political roadmap remains elusive amid the Red Sea crisis.
Grundberg, the U.N. special envoy for Yemen, hoped to utilize the May 6 truce. "We need to build on the recent cessation of hostilities in the Red Sea," he said, briefing the Security Council in June.
"This effort goes hand in hand with our ongoing work towards a roadmap that will help Yemen overcome its current divisions and lead to a comprehensive ceasefire, critical economic measures and an inclusive political process."
But as the Red Sea crisis and other regional dynamics continue to derail his efforts towards peace in Yemen, Grundberg and the United Nations will likely remain "deeply concerned" amid the turbulence—with little else to show for it.
