Yara Bataineh is an editorial associate at DAWN’s Democracy in Exile. She holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Jordan and a master’s degree in international relations from the University of San Diego. Her work has included refugee-focused initiatives and civic education programs in Jordan.
Sayyid Mohammad al-Musawwi, a Bahraini citizen who previously spent more than a decade in prison, died in custody after being detained over allegations linked to the Israeli and U.S. war with Iran. Arrested in early March after his release in 2024, he never made it out alive. His death has reignited fears among activists that Bahrain is returning to repression levels seen after the Arab Spring. Those fears span the Arab world, particularly in Gulf states and countries hosting U.S. military bases, where authorities have intensified crackdowns on activists, journalists and ordinary citizens expressing dissent over the war.
Al-Musawwi is not alone. He is one of at least 200 individuals detained in Bahrain since the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28. Among them is 21-year-old Hussein Fatiil, detained after posting videos from a protest outside the U.S. Embassy. He now faces charges including incitement and treason, which could carry the death penalty. Bahrain has since seen civil unrest, which intensified after al-Musawwi's death, with some demonstrators chanting anti-monarchy slogans, including "Down with the king."
This wave of repression reflects a deeper trend among Arab regimes: growing public frustration with U.S. policy in the region and their governments' alignment with Washington.
- Yara Bataineh
In the UAE, authorities have arrested at least 375 people for filming or sharing content related to military strikes. Some reports suggest an expansion of already pervasive digital surveillance, where even private sharing can lead to arrest. Phone checks, informants in WhatsApp groups and harsh cybercrime penalties point to restrictions extending into personal communications, fostering fear and self-censorship.
In Kuwait, a newly issued decree mandates prison sentences and heavy fines for sharing reports deemed to "undermine the prestige of the military." Authorities have detained individuals over expressions of solidarity with Iran and resistance groups, including a lawyer arrested after posting a video calling for detainees' release. In March, officials announced the arrest of 16 individuals, including 14 Kuwaitis and two Lebanese nationals, over an alleged Hezbollah-linked cell. Authorities later detained 10 more Kuwaitis in a separate plot targeting "vital installations." Hezbollah has repeatedly denied the accusations, saying it has no presence in the country. The crackdown has also extended to journalists, including Kuwaiti-American reporter Ahmed Shihab-Eldin, who has been detained for weeks and faces prosecution over social media posts related to the war.
In Qatar, U.N. reports note 313 people detained for similar conduct, including recording or sharing of information about the conflict. This includes at least one individual who criticized the government and armed forces. The Committee to Protect Journalists reported that Qatari authorities detained an Al Jazeera-affiliated journalist, Saeed Ziad, over social media posts about the Iran war, releasing him March 20. Some point to a pattern in which Al Jazeera's reporting on Iran is shaped by Qatari political considerations, particularly through the selective inclusion and exclusion of voices. Analysts presenting Iran's actions as defensive were sidelined, while commentary emphasizing Tehran as a threat to the Gulf was amplified, narrowing the range of perspectives available to audiences.
In Jordan, the Media Commission prohibited publishing information related to defense operations without prior authorization, warning that violations would trigger legal action and prosecution. In addition, at least four critics have been arrested since the war began on Feb. 28, including three members of the Jordanian Communist Party, two of whom remain detained on unknown grounds.
This wave of repression reflects a deeper trend among Arab regimes: growing public frustration with U.S. policy in the region and their governments' alignment with Washington. This crackdown did not begin with the war on Iran. Across several Arab states, authorities had already moved to suppress pro-Palestinian activism during Israel's genocide in Gaza — a pattern that has since intensified.
Israel's genocide had already reshaped public opinion across the Arab world toward the United States, exposing what many see as unwavering support for Israel regardless of civilian cost. Ongoing dehumanizing rhetoric by some U.S. politicians toward Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims has only strengthened this perception, now further compounded by the war on Iran.
The escalation, from mass arrests to deaths in custody and renewed anti-monarchy chants, suggests a return to a playbook that failed to secure lasting stability in 2011. What it risks reviving is not control, but memory.
- Yara Bataineh
Since the war began, several U.S. officials have used rhetoric echoing a "holy war" narrative, language that Arabs and Muslims widely consider offensive. Statements by figures like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, alongside an uptick in Islamophobic rhetoric from U.S. politicians since the war's onset, have reinforced perceptions of the conflict as civilizational or religious, rather than geopolitical. Such narratives risk inflaming tensions, alienating already skeptical regional publics.
These developments are unfolding against a broader backdrop of deepening public frustration across the region. The current moment echoes the period preceding the 2011 Arab uprisings, when public frustration stemmed from an accumulation of grievances: political repression, economic hardship and a widening disconnect between governments and citizens. Palestine, long central to the Arab street, was similarly an undercurrent in those protests, shaping perceptions of justice and legitimacy. Today, Israel's war in Gaza has deepened moral outrage and, for many, a sense of betrayal by governments aligned with the United States.
The war on Iran risks intensifying these pressures, especially by worsening economic conditions. Disruptions to energy markets and trade have increased the cost of basic goods, compounding existing hardship. As in 2011, the convergence of economic pressure, political repression and perceived external alignment raises the possibility of renewed mass mobilization, even if its scale and form remain uncertain.
Early indications of public sentiment already reveal this growing disconnect. While comprehensive public opinion data on the war is not yet available, there are signs of a widening gap between regional governments and their citizens. Social media analysis shows widespread engagement with narratives praising Iran's actions.
Existing survey data provides additional context. According to the latest Arab Opinion Index, only 8% of Arabs viewed Iran as the primary threat in 2025, compared with 14% in the Gulf states. Though predating the war, the figures highlight a broader pattern: Iran is not widely viewed as the central regional adversary that many governments portray.
This disconnect helps explain the urgency behind state repression. Regional governments reliant on U.S. security partnerships view public sympathy for Iran, even if limited, conditional or simply opposed to the war, as a political risk. Silencing dissent becomes a means of managing that risk. Repression, however, carries its own dangers. Efforts to suppress public opinion only increase dissent. The more governments attempt to control the narrative, the more they risk widening the gap between state and society.
As the war continues, even amid a shaky so-called "ceasefire," the impacts go beyond shifting regional dynamics. The conflict is exposing a fundamental tension: governments continue to align with U.S. policies as their publics reflect increasing disillusionment with them. Bahrain is not just another case of repression — it is a barometer. The escalation, from mass arrests to deaths in custody and renewed anti-monarchy chants, suggests a return to a playbook that failed to secure lasting stability in 2011. What it risks reviving is not control, but memory.
The lesson of 2011 was that repression, when paired with political exclusion and regional crisis, can transform isolated grievances into mass movements, triggering a domino effect across the region. That dynamic began in Tunisia, but it did not stay there. It spread because the conditions were not unique. They were shared.
Today, those conditions are reemerging: deepening repression, economic strain, anger over Palestine and a growing perception that governments are aligned against their publics. Bahrain may again be among the first places where that pressure breaks. If it does, it is unlikely to do so quietly or in isolation.
The views and positions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of DAWN.
