Yonatan Touval is a senior policy analyst with Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. He has written for Haaretz, The Washington Post and The New York Times, among other publications.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria marks a transformative shift in the Middle East. Israel sees both significant challenges and strategic opportunities. The rapid advance of rebel factions led by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the retreat of both Iranian and Hezbollah forces, and the limitations on Russian intervention after Moscow had previously propped up Assad's regime all signal a profound change in Syria and the wider region. Amid this uncertainty, Israel must navigate a complex web of risks and possibilities, some of which are impossible to predict, let alone prepare for.
In the days after Assad fled to Moscow, Israel's immediate focus has been on the Golan Heights. The Israel Defense Forces swiftly seized control of a roughly 400-square-kilometer (155-square-mile) buffer zone inside Syria, beyond the Israeli-occupied Golan. This demilitarized area, established after the 1973 war, had been monitored by U.N. forces ever since under a disengagement agreement that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now says has "collapsed" with the fall of the Assad regime. That 1974 agreement had made Israel's border with Syria its quietest frontier for decades, despite the regime's rhetoric of "resistance" from both Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez. The Israeli military says its incursion into Syria serves multiple purposes: preventing spillover conflict, protecting U.N. peacekeepers and maintaining stability during this volatile period.
Simultaneously, Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes across Syria, targeting the Syrian Air Force and Navy, chemical weapons storage depots, long-range missiles, air defense systems and weapons production plants. Broadly speaking, these sites fall into two groups: military assets associated with the Assad regime—the strikes have effectively destroyed the Syrian Navy—and military infrastructure set up by the Iranians, which played a crucial role in arming Hezbollah. The intensity and scope of these operations may well constitute the most extensive air campaign ever executed by the Israeli Air Force. It has also sparked international uproar, from neighboring countries in the region and from the United Nations.
The power vacuum in southern Syria has rapidly changed the status quo in an area that had been kept quiet under the Assad regime.
- Yonatan Touval
Israel fears that its northern border faces heightened instability, particularly from factions like HTS, which was formerly aligned with al-Qaida but broke those ties in 2016 and has tried to project a more pragmatic, nationalist image as it took on the Assad regime. While the group has avoided direct confrontation with Israel throughout Syria's civil war, its new role as the leading Syrian rebel group and de facto transitional authorities in Damascus present new and dangerous risks to Israel, given the proximity to the Israeli border.
The power vacuum in southern Syria, combined with rebel activity from both HTS and other armed opposition groups, has rapidly changed the status quo in an area that had been kept quiet under the Assad regime, with implications not only for Israel but also neighboring Jordan and Lebanon. Israeli officials fear a new era of jihadist influence on Israel's borders that could radically alter security dynamics in the Golan Heights. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said openly that Israel intends to establish an expanded demilitarized zone in southern Syria, which he has described as a "defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats."
Netanyahu's government has framed the incursion into Syrian territory as a temporary and tactical move, despite some reports that Israeli troops have advanced even further into Syria, within 25 kilometers of Damascus, which Israel denies. A prolonged Israeli military presence in Syria beyond the 1974 disengagement lines—especially if accompanied by calls by Israeli politicians to annex more Syrian territory and extend the borders of the occupied Golan Heights—could galvanize Syrian armed groups into coordinated resistance. Such a scenario risks escalating tensions and drawing Israel deeper into a conflict it seeks to contain.
Another threat lies in the possible collapse of what has become a largely autonomous Kurdish region in eastern Syria, where the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have established control. The SDF has immediately been under assault from the so-called Syrian National Army, a rival Syrian militia backed by Turkey that controls pockets of northern Syria, underscoring President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main priority post-Assad: preventing the establishment of a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on its border. The Turkish government sees the Kurdish forces in Syria as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a designated terrorist group in Turkey.
This precarious situation in northern and eastern Syria risks dismantling the map that has emerged there, creating another power vacuum that could be exploited by Iranian-backed militias or extremist groups like ISIS. (The SDF and U.S. forces in northeastern Syria guard the prisons that hold thousands of ISIS fighters.) While Israel seeks to avoid military friction with Turkey, it has targeted Syrian military installations in Qamishli, in Syria's Kurdish-dominated northeast, and must urgently work with the U.S. and Turkey to preserve Kurdish autonomy, led by Gen. Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the SDF. This cooperation is essential to prevent the collapse of Kurdish autonomy, counter Erdogan's ambitions and avoid further destabilization of Syria before new governance structures emerge.
A prolonged Israeli military presence in Syria beyond the 1974 disengagement lines could galvanize Syrian armed groups into coordinated resistance.
- Yonatan Touval
While the end of Assad's regime brings immediate security risks, Israel also sees significant opportunities to undermine its regional adversaries. Syria has long served as a key conduit for Iranian weapons supplies to Hezbollah, one of Israel's most potent threats. Disrupting this supply line could weaken Hezbollah's efforts to rebuild its military operational capabilities in Lebanon, particularly its large missile stockpiles, in the aftermath of Israeli attacks that decimated the militant group. Israel's decision to strike Iranian military infrastructure in Syria underscores this aim. The withdrawal of Iranian and Hezbollah forces from Syria is one of the most significant outcomes of Assad's ouster, forcing Tehran to reassess its regional strategy.
With Assad gone, there could be a realignment of the broader Middle Eastern power structure. For years, his regime was central to the self-proclaimed "axis of resistance" backed by Iran, which included Hezbollah and various Shia militias from Iraq to Yemen. With this axis weakened, Israel finds itself in a position to collaborate with its Arab partners, from Egypt and Jordan to the United Arab Emirates and even potentially Saudi Arabia, and other regional actors to shape Syria's post-Assad future.
However, any prospect of that comes with risks. Turkey, a key player in Syria's conflict, supports HTS but is wary of its jihadist nature. Erdogan aims to influence Syria's future, but perhaps first through the Syrian armed group it directly backs: the self-described Syrian National Army. But Erdogan could lend more aid to the HTS-led rebels who toppled Assad in order to cultivate a pro-Turkey regime in Damascus. However, he is also concerned about the rise of a Taliban-style state on his southern border. Israel must navigate these dynamics carefully, balancing diplomacy without becoming entangled in Syria's internal struggles.
Amid the collapse of Iran's regional proxies, Israel faces an additional concern: Tehran's potential move toward nuclear development. With Hezbollah and Syria's strategic influence waning and its own military assets in Syria destroyed, Iran may view a nuclear option as its remaining deterrent against Israel's regional superiority. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran could dramatically alter the region's security calculus, leading Israel—and possibly the United States—to launch a military campaign aimed at destroying Iranian nuclear sites.
Israel faces a delicate balancing act in Syria. While the collapse of Assad's regime undermines key adversaries, it also creates a highly unstable environment. Overreach risks entangling Israel in Syria's internal turmoil. But Israel also fears that if it doesn't act, it could allow hostile factions to entrench themselves and expand their influence just over its border.
